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Turning Agricultural Residue and Low-Cost Solar into Competitive Sustainable Aviation Fuel with Power-And-Biomass-To-Liquids
Two domestic advantages underpin this result: among the lowest green-hydrogen costs observed internationally, and a large, increasingly organized supply of agricultural residue.
The same pathway addresses three concurrent national challenges—energy-import dependence, air pollution from residue burning, and rising aviation emissions.
Sources
EU jet fuel and SAF market prices (historical): WEF and Argus eSAF price index. India imported jet fuel/ATF (historical): IndianOil Corporation (IOCL), ATF, International Airlines, Delhi rate. India imported ATF (business-as-usual) and PBtL/eSAF (green fuel) levelized cost projections (2030–2050): See Annex A for methodology. Prices converted to USD/L using a jet fuel density of 0.808 kg/L. The PBtL SAF (green) cost declines as INR-denominated green hydrogen and renewable electricity costs fall, with renewable power locked in via long-term INR-denominated PPAs; the imported-ATF (business-as-usual) price rises over the projection period due to inflation.
(Nominal USD/L), 2023–2050
EU SAF has traded between roughly $1.5 and $2.4/L; EU fossil jet fuel between roughly $0.6 and $0.8/L. India projections begin in 2030: PBtL SAF cost at $1.4/L declining to $1.0/L by 2049, and imported jet fuel at $1.0/L rising to $1.4/L. The dashed green line marks the EU SAF average market price ($2.0/L); the difference between it and the PBtL SAF cost line is labelled as the potential advantage. PBtL liquids require upgrading before they are jet-grade SAF.
India imports nearly 90% of its crude oil, exposing its fast-growing aviation sector to geopolitical shocks — most recently the 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure. Agricultural residue burning is estimated in 130 million tonnes per year, and has been associated with 44,000–98,000 premature deaths per year. Aviation Turbine FUel (ATF) is on track to rise six-fold by 2050. Yet India also records the world’s lowest green hydrogen costs and a rapidly maturing agricultural residue supply chain — precisely the two inputs PBtL SAF requires.
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At a baseline green hydrogen price of $3/kg — already achieved in India’s recent auctions — India’s PBtL route produces SAF at $1.41/L. This is the lowest levelized cost among the five major SAF pathways and sits 30–40% below the global SAF benchmark range of $1.6–2.4/L. It is also five times cheaper than EU e-SAF at $7.2/L, which represents a key export market.
PBtL becomes the least-cost option once green hydrogen prices fall below ~$3.4/kg — a threshold already surpassed in India’s recent auction results.
Chart: Summary of power-and-biomass-to-liquids’ (PBtL) advantage over competing sustainable aviation fuel production pathways, assuming the use of agricultural residue for PBtL and biomass-to-liquids (BtL), waste oils for hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), first-generation ethanol for alcohol-to-jet (ATJ), andindustrial point-source carbon dioxide with an eventual transition to direct air capture for power-to-liquids (PtL)
Two cost accountings, shown separately. On the right, fossil jet fuel from its 2030 spot price plus 25 years of USD inflation and INR depreciation, then the carbon externality. On the left, PBtL liquids production cost, and the per-litre value of avoided premature mortality from diverting open-field crop-residue burning. These are not directly comparable: PBtL liquids require upgrading to jet-grade SAF, and the externalities priced on each side differ in kind.
Each bubble is a district, sized by surplus agricultural residue and shaded by quintile of 2030 PBtL liquids cost (darker indicates higher cost). Red markers indicate the ten airports accounting for approximately three-quarters of India’s jet-fuel demand. Residue is concentrated in the north and east; demand is concentrated at Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru.
Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply any opinion regarding the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Back demonstration projects around the Delhi, Pune, and Mumbai airports with concessional finance, viability-gap support on hydrogen, streamlined siting, and airport pipeline integration. Direct the public-sector oil companies (IOCL, BPCL, HPCL, ONGC) to anchor early projects through their capital plans, as they were for green-hydrogen auctions.
Align sustainability criteria with the EU and UK mandates that exclude food- and feed-crop SAF, seek recognition of residue-based PBtL under e-SAF carve-outs given its heavy reliance on green hydrogen, and enable bonded logistics for export through key hubs.
Price fossil jet fuel for its climate cost (India’s social cost of carbon is about $86 per ton CO₂) and reward use of crop residue that would otherwise be burned (an estimated $230 per ton of biomass in avoided premature deaths), most realistically by extending the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme to aviation. Cap residue use at current surplus levels as a failsafe, and review against whether crop fires are falling.
Extend India’s 5% SAF target to domestic flights, raise it beyond 5% after 2030 for long-term certainty, and provide a floor or carve-out for PBtL using green hydrogen and agricultural residue. Complement this with airport-level tenders modeled on SECI’s green-ammonia auctions under the SIGHT scheme.